Author Topic: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!  (Read 2050 times)

dpc

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The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« on: October 12, 2017, 07:56:56 AM »
In this article, it is explained how market bubbles "are relatively predictable", and that it's "to enter at ... and to exit at" the right times. Even the variations after a crash "can be leveraged too, as they are somewhat predictable, both in intensity, velocity, and duration."

http://www.datasciencecentral.com/profiles/blogs/the-art-and-data-science-of-leveraging-economic-bubbles

Cwadda

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2017, 08:13:10 AM »
Now there aren't just bubbles for the stock market and real estate, but bubbles for education and health care too?

*facepalm*

Cwadda

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2017, 08:19:49 AM »
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Finally, I could have named this article An Easy Way to Make One Million Dollars: according to my computations, that's pretty much what I have gained, with almost no amount of work: with just pure (good) decision making. I have no doubt that you can do better, in a bigger scale, by automating what I did, and by carefully analyzing data to make decisions, rather than relying on gut feelings

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We sold in 2005 for $550k as I strongly felt the bubble, bought a new home in Washington state in an area that was not experiencing a bubble, and managed to win both in CA and in WA.

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And at least - using gut feelings - you can do well enough to allow you to extract 1/3 of the wealth generated

Wat?

bobechs

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2017, 02:53:47 PM »
A testable proposition: "sell if your asset's value increased by more than 200% within a four year time period"

What investment currently qualifies under that criterion?

Who has anecdotes to contradict it?

For discussion, it has more meat than the rumblings of the entrails of punters.

fattest_foot

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2017, 11:55:13 PM »
A testable proposition: "sell if your asset's value increased by more than 200% within a four year time period"

What investment currently qualifies under that criterion?

Who has anecdotes to contradict it?

For discussion, it has more meat than the rumblings of the entrails of punters.

Well damn, why didn't I think of buying assets that would increase by 200%?

It was all there in front of my face the entire time!

StockBeard

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2017, 02:44:28 AM »
A testable proposition: "sell if your asset's value increased by more than 200% within a four year time period"

Who has anecdotes to contradict it?


AMZN

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2017, 10:56:35 AM »
A testable proposition: "sell if your asset's value increased by more than 200% within a four year time period"

What investment currently qualifies under that criterion?

Who has anecdotes to contradict it?

For discussion, it has more meat than the rumblings of the entrails of punters.

I found a nickle while walking through a casino one time and put it in a slot machine . . . which gave me a quarter.  200%+ value increase!  I immediately left the casino, but sadly later spent all the proceeds on a small bag of penny candy..

talltexan

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2017, 12:53:34 PM »
I found a $5 on the ground at the zoo. Was smart enough to give it to my father, who turned it into $15 at a casino three miles away.

clarkfan1979

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2017, 02:24:18 AM »
I thought all scientists were data scientists. I'm not sure if I have ever met a non-data scientist. 

marty998

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2017, 04:25:49 AM »
I thought all scientists were data scientists. I'm not sure if I have ever met a non-data scientist.

They work for Big Tobacco.

SecondBreakfast

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2017, 07:24:58 AM »
If you bought your Bitcoins in 2013 and cashed out after a mere 200% gain you'd still be kicking yourself right now.

Not to say they won't crash tomorrow but a bubble can pop at 50% gain or 5000% gain. They're irrational.

edit: not to say you can't make money on a bubble - obviously someone has to. Just that you're always rolling the dice that you won't be one of the poor schmucks left with a worthless investment when the music stops.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2017, 07:27:27 AM by SecondBreakfast »

GuitarStv

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2017, 09:05:08 AM »
I thought all scientists were data scientists. I'm not sure if I have ever met a non-data scientist.

They work for Big Tobacco.

Also provide flawed studies for climate change deniers to point at.

MgoSam

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2017, 09:12:17 AM »
I thought all scientists were data scientists. I'm not sure if I have ever met a non-data scientist.

They work for Big Tobacco.

Also provide flawed studies for climate change deniers to point at.

If you want to learn more check out the book "Merchants of Doubt" by Naomi Oreskes

Indexer

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Re: The Science behind Market Timing Revealed!
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2017, 06:24:28 PM »
Quote from: article
I am wondering if some scientists are analyzing these bubbles, to identify patterns that help extract money from these bubbles, and find better rules than mines.

What?  Really?  Did it occur to you that economists and financial analysts have been trying to do that for decades? If there was a really simple system I think they would have found it. 

Side note: Grammar. "... better rules than mines." Something tells me that actual scientists don't write their articles like that.

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Bubble leveraging is a skill that some data scientists naturally have.

A skill that data scientists naturally have? Is this similar to the scientists who are naturally good at nuclear physics... that doesn't require any study right? You are just naturally good at it.