Good luck getting that 7-8% in the USA in the next ten to 15 years though.
Would never be all-cash (I have very little cash), but better tune down expectations for the next decade
Wish I had your crystal ball!
Good luck getting that 7-8% in the USA in the next ten to 15 years though.
Would never be all-cash (I have very little cash), but better tune down expectations for the next decade
Ok I will play devils advocate here, why do you say /believe these things ?
When should I stock up on ramen, tp, water and ammo ?
Please note how I'm not predicting anything short term.
No one knows for sure, but every available valuation indicator out there (cape, simple P/E, p/b, USA valuation gap VS other markets just to name a few) shows a high probability of underperformance for the American stock market, compared to its historical rate.
Pick historical moments of similar valuation, and look forward 10 years to see what happened.
If the answer to this is "no one really knows" then I say yes, but history would suggest a higher chance ( =/ than certitude) of underperformance.
If the answer is "the past is not predictive of the future", then what are you basing expected future returns on?
As to what should you do, the answer I would give, as always, is "nothing" (except to lower your expectations)